‘Top Gun 2’ and ‘Jurassic World 3’ should end Hollywood’s problematic reliance on China

Top Gun: Maverick, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Jurassic World Dominion earned $3 billion worldwide, of which only 4% ($132 million for Jurassic World 3) from China.

As we await receipts from the Thursday morning preview for Marvel’s Thor: Love and ThunderI wanted to take a moment to note the relatively quiet success of Universal and Amblin. Jurassic World Dominion. Yesterday, the $185 million trio made $342 million domestically and (assuming the 40/60 domestic/overseas split remains intact) around $850 million worldwide. This includes approximately $132 million in China over a $53 million opening weekend. The film might not break $1 billion worldwide, mostly due to a slowdown in China (which, jumping further, is more about China than Jurassic) and no income from Russia. It has already exceeded 318 to 336 million likes Iron Man, Deadpool 2, Guardians of the Galaxy, Joker, Aquaman, Spider-Man: Homecoming and Spiderman 3 with much less gratuitous media coverage. His worldwide total will soon surpass $854-881 million in likes from Thor: Ragnarok, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Venom and Spider-Man: Homecoming.

However, Jurassic World 3 is on track to earn about five times its budget of $185 million while earning “only” $132 million in China. Yes, it is 41% less than jurassic world ($227 million from a $99 million launch in 2015) and 49% less than Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($261 million versus $111 million in 2018). However, A) it is the third highest grossing Hollywood in China since 2019 (behind F9 with 206 million dollars and Godzilla vs. Kong with $188 million) and B) its 2.5x multiplier from weekend to finale is solid for a Hollywood export and heavier than the last two installments. I will again argue that the “mere” $132 million in total, on par with Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation in 2018 and Godzilla: King of the Monsters in 2019, is more about China’s waning interest (whether genuine or government-orchestrated) in Hollywood biggies. But it beats the respective totals of $17 million and $25 million for Unexplored and The Batman.

China has its own potential (often excellent) poles that have attracted once unthinkable ($385 million for monster hunt, $550 million for Mermaid$854 million for Wolf Warrior II, $700 million for The Wandering Earth$912 million for The Battle of Changjin Lakeetc.) Chinese revenue since 2015. Conversely, the recent decline in Hollywood-specific revenue has had a cost, with Chinese box office down 38% for the first half of 2022. Spider-Man: No Way Home, Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Uncharted, The Batman and no time to die became global hits with little or no help from China. For years, the media and industry have bluntly swallowed the lie that Hollywood needs China to reach its maximum box office potential, even though 90% of the films that have made a splash in China (think Transformers: Age of Extinction, Mission: Impossible – Fallout, Zootopia, Aquamanetc.) are the same ones that broke out all over the world.

There are exceptions. Think xXx: The Return of Alex Cage (which grossed $164 million out of $385 million in China on an $80 million budget) or Loan player one ($218 million on $585 million on a $175 million budget), for which strong Chinese grossing lifted the overall score of a big-budget movie from “no” to “yay.” There are others, like Carnage ($156 million of $430 million) or War for the Planet of the Apes ($116m/$491m), where China pushed the world cume to “Yeah, that’s a hit.” $113 million was not enough to do Alita: battle angel a hit with $405 million. Also, $220 million (compared to the Wednesday-Sunday debut of $156 million) wasn’t enough to make Warcraft a franchise with $440 million on a budget of $165 million. Strong Chinese sequels led Hollywood to believe that Terminator: Genisys ($441 million worldwide) and Pacific Rim ($411 million) deserved sequels, but dark fate ($252 million) and Uprising ($290 million) exposed the lie.

Hollywood has recently flourished with ‘no need for China’ results for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($950 million), Spider-Man: No Coming Home ($1.9 billion) and Top Gun: Maverick (probably around $1.25 billion). They also relished the “more than enough with a lower-than-expected Chinese box office” revenue for The Batman ($770 million), Jurassic World Dominion (about $900-925 million at the end) and Unexplored ($400 million). 2022 could be the time when Hollywood finally gives up its proverbial reliance on China’s often superficial box office potential (Hollywood often only gets 25% of the gross compared to around 50% everywhere else). We’ll see if the only other “Huge in China?” Released 2022, James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of the Waterdrawn Avengers: Endgame-level ($620 million in 2019) or even Furious 7-level ($392 million in 2015) magnifies and complicates this conversation. If so, Hollywood should learn what it should have learned in 2010, which is that AvatarThe $209 million gross at the time was approximately Avatar.

Warner Bros. would still prefer Dwayne Johnson’s black adam do more in China than the $25 million earned by The Batman and Wonder Woman 1984. They would prefer Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom to get close to Aquaman ($298 million in 2018) than Shazam! ($43 million, or Shazam 2 opening days after Avatar 2), although gross revenues of $90-95 million from wonder woman and batman versus superman can now be “aspirational”. Same X fast, even as China rejected continuity and retcon filled F9 as fast as they did Chinatown Detective 3 ($685 million on a record opening weekend of $399 million). The Meg 2: The Trench would surely like a repeat of The Meg’s 145 million domestic dollars/155 million Chinese dollars/530 million dollars worldwide. Thereby Wolf Warrior II and The Wandering Earthby Wu Jing alongside Jason Statham. However, the smash of 2022 could allow Hollywood to see China again as “just” a potential cherry on top of an already successful sundae.

Now, Hollywood may have to find another excuse for why its blockbusters aren’t inclusive enough. I trust they will quickly find one.