Last week, current ATP World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev met the press in Los Cabos where he was competing in the ATP 250 event, which he went on to win.
The Russian, who isn’t shy about speaking his mind, was candid when asked about the No.1 ranking scenario, saying it was very likely that two-time winner Rafael Nadal ( Australian Open and Roland-Garros) of the three major tournaments offering points this year, will end the season in first place.
“Of course I look [the race for No. 1] a bit,” Medvedev was quoted as saying by the ATP Tour website. “It also depends on when because I know that at the end of the year, unless I try to win all the tournaments that are left, it will probably be Rafa Nadal for (the year-end No.1) .”
You can understand the point. Medvedev has 7,875 points and 3,360 to defend in the next five weeks. If Medvedev qualifies for the final in Montreal this week, he will be guaranteed to be number 1 at least until the US Open. If he loses before the final, he will open the door for Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz to overtake him in Cincinnati.
Nadal has 5,620 points and has no points to defend for the rest of the season as he has not played any tournaments after the first week of August in 2021. Alcaraz has 5,035 points this week, and has 485 points to defend over the next five weeks.
However, Medvedev is determined to hold on to the top spot for as long as he can as his favorite and most profitable streak of the season kicks off. The 26-year-old went on to say, “But at the same time, I feel like I can keep him around long enough if I play well here in the (North American hard-court swing).”
The 52-week rolling methodology used by the tours to calculate the ATP rankings, coupled with extremely unusual circumstances such as the expulsion of Novak Djokovic from Melbourne and the Wimbledon ban of Russian players – which led to the removal of the tournament of his ranking points, had also raised the possibility of Alexander Zverev becoming world number one in mid-August, even though he has failed to reach a Grand Slam final in the past 12 months.
Leaving aside the short-term math, let’s take a look at how the top six players in this week’s ATP rankings stack up as the American summer swing kicks off in earnest this week.
Daniil Medvedev: the target
Ranking as of August 8, 2022 – No. 1; Total points = 7,875
Current position in the ATP Race to Turin (only YTD points) – No. 5; Points = 2,825
Total points in defense until the end of 2022 = 5,050 points
- 2,000 points for winning the US Open [American swing]
- 1,000 points for winning the Canadian Open Masters [American swing]
- 360 points for reaching the Cincinnati Masters semifinals [American swing]
- 1,000 points for the Nitto ATP Finals
- 600 points for reaching the Paris Masters final
- 90 points for reaching the Round of 16 of the 2021 Indian Wells Masters (date changed to October due to the pandemic)
Medvedev has made the summer hard-court season his points festival for the past few years. But with an average first half of 2022 (the Los Cabos title was his first of 2022) and the Wimbledon ban, the Russian now faces the challenge of matching or bettering his run from last year to retain the first place, which seems rather unlikely.
Medvedev will defend his US Open and Canadian titles as well as his runner-up finishes at the Nitto ATP Finals and Paris Masters. In total, he has a total of 5,050 points to defend until the end of the year. As he said himself, he pretty much needs to win every tournament he enters to have a chance of finishing 2022 as the world No. 1 in the ATP rankings.
Alexander Zverev: in the waiting room
Ranking as of August 8, 2022 – No. 2; Total points = 6,760 points
Current position in the ATP Race to Turin (only YTD points) – Number 6; Point = 2,700
Total points “in defense” until the end of 2022 = 4,060 points (Zverev won’t play until mid-September, the better)
- 1,000 points for winning the Cincinnati Masters [American swing]
- 720 points for reaching the US Open semi-finals [American swing]
- 1,300 points for winning the end-of-season ATP Finals
- 500 points for winning Vienna
- 360 points for reaching the semi-finals of the ATP Paris Masters
- 180 points for reaching the quarter-finals of the 2021 Indian Wells Masters
Like Medvedev, Zverev will also have plenty of points – 4,060 – to defend in the last four months of the tennis schedule. But unlike the world number 1, Zverev is unable to compete at the moment as he continues to be sidelined following his ankle surgery in June.
Zverev has already withdrawn from the Canadian Open Masters and it remains unclear whether he will play in Cincinnati or the US Open. With more than 4,000 points in defense, the German is expected to drop further in the standings in the coming weeks.
Rafael Nadal: best placed assuming he plays
Ranking as of August 8, 2022 – No. 3; Total points = 5,620 points
Current position in the ATP Race to Turin (only YTD points) – No. 1; Points = 5620
Total points in defense until the end of 2022 = None
Nadal’s misfortune of missing the final four months of the 2021 season through injury has turned into a blessing 12 months later – if he can play on a regular schedule this time around. The Spaniard doesn’t defend any points for the rest of the upcoming season.
However, Nadal took a step back last week with his withdrawal from this week’s Canadian Masters due to some discomfort related to his abdominal injury. He is expected to play at the Cincinnati Masters as well as the US Open. It’s a pool of 3,000 ranking points for any player who earns both.
Nadal’s two Grand Slam titles in 2022 have already put him at the top of the ATP race in Turin and he finds himself in top position to end the season as world No. 1 in the ATP rankings for the sixth time in his career. career, even though he has said on several occasions that it is no longer a priority for him.
Carlos Alcaraz: the credible outsider
Ranking as of August 8, 2022 – Number 4; Total points = 5,035 points
Current position in the ATP Race to Turin (only YTD points) – No. 2; Points = 4,270
Total points in defense until the end of 2022 = 765 stitches
- 360 points for reaching the quarter-finals of the US Open [American swing]
- 90 points for reaching the Winston-Salem semi-finals [American swing]
- 35 points for the round of 16 of the Cincinnati Masters [American swing]
- 180 points for reaching the semi-finals in Vienna
- 90 points for the round of 16 of the Paris Masters
- 10 points for 2021 Indian Wells Masters Round of 16 (delayed due to pandemic)
No longer the New Kid on the Block, the 19-year-old Spaniard is ranked second (behind compatriot Nadal) in the race to Turin, which will host the season-ending ATP Finals.
Thanks to two Masters series titles, an ATP 500 title and 2 second places, Alcaraz has built a nice cushion in front of some of its more experienced rivals. With just 765 points to defend for the rest of the season, Alcaraz could give Nadal a serious boost for the year-end No. 1 spot in the ATP rankings, especially with a deep run at Flushing Meadows or even a victory in one of the Masters. 1000 tournament. He won Miami in April, so why not?
Stefanos Tsitsipas: still in the race
Ranking as of August 8, 2022 – No. 5; Total points = 5,000 stitches
Current position in the ATP Race to Turin (only YTD points) – No. 3; Points = 4010
Total points in defense until the end of 2022 = 990 points
- 360 points for reaching the Cincinnati Masters semifinals [American swing]
- 360 points for reaching the semi-finals of the Canadian Masters [American swing]
- 90 points for reaching the third round of the US Open [American swing]
- 180 points for reaching the quarter-finals of the 2021 Indian Wells Masters
Largely forgotten in this discussion, Stefanos Tsitsipas is currently third in the race in Turin (fifth in the ATP rankings) thanks to two ATP titles, two second places and a major semi-final. The Greek is defending nearly 1,000 ranking points and will have plenty of opportunities over the next few months to get ahead of his lower-ranked rivals.
In the short term, he needs to secure around 800 points on the American swing to hold his position.
Novak Djokovic: praying for a miracle
Ranking as of August 8, 2022 – Number 6; Total points = 4,770 points
Current position in the ATP Race to Turin (only YTD points) – No. 10; Points = 1970
Total points in defense until the end of 2022 = 2,800 stitches
- 1,200 points for reaching the US Open final [American swing]
- 1,000 points for winning the Paris Masters
- 600 points for reaching the semi-finals of the Nitto ATP Finals
In case you’re wondering where all of this leaves Novak Djokovic, he’s ranked No. 6 in the world and No. 10 in the Torino race. Djokovic. Despite playing a limited schedule in 2021 after his quest to complete the Grand Slam schedule was woefully short, the Serb has to defend 2,800 ranking points. And considering he’ll likely miss Montreal, Cincinnati and the US Open, there could be another drop in the rankings for the 35-year-old. He will lose 2,200 points — unless a miracle allows him to play in the United States this year.