Summer Outlook Update: Warmer Than Average Conditions Very Likely Across the Rockies, Plains and Midwest

  • Much of the United States is expected to experience a warmer than usual summer in 2022.
  • This is especially the case from the Rockies and Plains to the Midwest.
  • An early monsoon can bring some relief to the desert southwest.

The summer of 2022 is expected to be warmer than average across much of the United States, according to an updated outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM company, and Atmospheric G2.

A large area from the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains to the Plains, Midwest and Northeast Interior is expected to experience the most above average temperatures from June through August. The most persistent warm conditions, relative to average, could settle in parts of the upper Midwest.

Meanwhile, summer heat can be a little more subdued, compared to average, in parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast.

Keep in mind that this outlook is an overall three-month trend. Therefore, we are likely to see warmer or cooler periods in each respective region of the country than what is indicated.

Overall, the setup for this summer resembles that of last summer.

Forecasts call for a rare “triple dip”, or third straight La Niña this fall and winter.

According to Todd Crawford, director of meteorology at Atmospheric G2, five of the last six summers leading up to La Niña winters have been warm overall in the United States.

Various long-range forecast models also indicate that it will be warmer than usual in the North and below average in the South.

There is also extensive plains drought to the west which can influence summer temperatures. Drier ground warms faster than moist ground and can increase areas of high pressure aloft often associated with heat waves.

Below is a month-by-month breakdown of the summer forecast.

June

June is expected to be the unusually hottest in the Desert Southwest to the Rocky Mountains, Plains, and upper Midwest, especially in the drought-scorched areas of the Plains to the west.

The north-central United States is expected to experience the most above average temperatures at the start of summer in June. Above average temperatures are also expected to extend to the mid-Atlantic and northeast.

However, much of the rest of the country, from California to central Texas, to the Ohio Valley and the northeast interior, is expected to be warmer than average in June.

Much of the southeast and east coast is expected to experience a fairly typical month of June, temperature-wise.

The only part of the Lower 48 that could stay stubbornly cool in June could be Washington State and northwestern Oregon, a continuation of what we’ve seen this spring.

July

The northern Rockies, northern plains and upper Midwest are most likely to swelter in a warmer than average July in 2022.

Regions from the central Rockies to Oklahoma to the Great Lakes are also expected to experience a warm month.

The Southeast and much of the Gulf Coast can experience July a little cooler than usual. With the focus of the heat further north, this could leave the southeast in a pattern of moist, but less warm, easterly winds.

The best chance of a cooler July, however, could be in the southwest, where an early onset of the wet phase of the monsoon – the summer storm season – is expected, as has been expected. produced last summer.

August

The core of August’s abnormal heat is expected from the Great Lakes to northern New England.

However, a generally warm August is expected from the Missouri Valley to the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic.

For the same reasoning discussed in the July section above, the August heat should be muted, overall, from the desert southwest to the Carolinas and Florida.

The primary journalistic mission of The Weather Company is to report on the latest weather news, the environment and the importance of science in our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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