Tornado reports are above normal for this year so far.
In terms of tornado reports, this is the most active since 2017, but 2011 has DOUBLE the reports! He was very active and violent in 2011 in the central, eastern and southern United States
Also a few days ago it was questioned if we tied the record at Purdue airport with 90. After speaking with NWS it appears Purdue airport was tied with Grissom as the location coolest in the viewing area Wednesday with 89.
We would have broken the record at Purdue Ag Farm with 91, but the airport hit 89. The airport weather station is the official record we use as it is only a few miles from the historic weather station at Purdue which took records at the Ag building from 1879 to 1943. Weather observations at the airport began during World War II in 1944.
The confusion arose from our WSI system here in the station reading 90 & Mesowest reading 90 with 89.6F being the high temperatures.
According to NWS, when temperatures are extremely close to 89/90 as it was on Wednesday, some data shows 89, some 90 due to the technique used by NWS for the official high temperature.
So the ASOS station at the airport automatically takes the reading in degrees Celsius and then converts them to degrees Fahrenheit. The data shows a high of 31.7C. This converts to 89.06F. Mesowest & WSI rounds the 31.7C to 32.0C which gives you 90.
So, to be absolutely exact, we were nine tenths of a degree from 90.
Then the 90 appears as 89.6F.
If your highs are 31.7, 31.8 or 31.9, you are literally 0.6-0.8 of 90.
Today at the last check, the maximum from Purdue airport was 88.
Highs hit today 86-92 on the viewing area.
Tonight’s lows are expected to drop to 66. The record low for tomorrow morning is 66 set in 1940 and 1991. Again, like 2011, 1940 was a similar winter and spring for our winter-spring-summer outlook and it saw similar hot weather in early to mid May.
A line of storms is starting to our west, but is collapsing as tonight approaches. From this we get the rising clouds and the exit boundary. We may have a few isolated showers after 2:00 a.m. until sunrise. Lows of 64-68 are expected.
After the sun/clouds, sct’d thunderstorms appear from 1 p.m. to 8 p.m. (isolated severe). We are looking for a quick dry after 8pm.
With some clearing lows 57 to 63 are expected with scattered fog.
With sun/clouds, sct’d thunderstorms erupt after 2:00 p.m. (isolated severe from 3:30 p.m. to 7:00 p.m.) Sunday.
After that, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening before easing at 3am.
Unfortunately, it looks like clouds and precipitation will keep the lunar eclipse obscured.
After numerous bubbling cumulus clouds on Monday with a few isolated showers (northwest wind 15-25 mph).
Highs of 74-79 are expected with low humidity.
Tuesday looks mostly sunny to partly cloudy with low humidity and highs of 72-77 (northwest winds 10-20 mph), clouds will increase Wednesday as the warm front approaches.
However, it looks like showers and thunderstorms will remain south of our region on Wednesday with highs of 70 to 75 with winds shifting to the east.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late Wednesday night-night through Thursday morning and even noon.
After that we expect a clearing trend with highs of 78 to 86 south to north on Thursday with wet to heavy weather coming.
The warm front will be well north of the observation area on Friday with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with strong southerly winds.
By 1 p.m. Friday, temperatures should already be 87-90 with high humidity (heat index 93-97).
Much of Saturday is dry with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with southwest winds at 35 mph.
It will be very hot to hot and windy with 88-92 as of 1 p.m. with heat indexes of 94-103.
Highs of 90-94 are possible with heat indexes of 98-104.
A substantial risk of severe weather is in place with conditions favoring the development of a vigorous squall line by Saturday evening. It looks like this may impact our area after 9 p.m. on Saturday May 21.
We will monitor.
Projected instability and shear support ENHANCED HAZARD (Level 3 of 5) for bass, but this is not an official forecast. I use all preliminary dynamics, shear and instability data for this time period to make this statement.
The CIPS analog supports overall severe weather risk from May 20-22 and possibly around May 25 over the central and eastern United States
It will chill a few laps well, but above normal temperatures will tend to dominate overall.
It still looks like a lot of intense heat waves in June.
June continues to show below normal precipitation overall.
The heaviest precipitation and main severe weather hazard area is in the northwest and north of our region.
Granted, we are likely to see a few “Ridge Riders” or severe storm complexes in the “Ring of Fire” around the periphery of the warm upper ridge to help prevent a full flash drought early in the season.
Not only did we have a La Nina double dip, but it looks more and more like a La Nina triple dip waiting for us. Looks like La Nina will indeed last this coming fall and winter. It’s very rare. This has only happened three times since 1950.
1954-57 was a triple dip, as was 1973-76. 1998-2001 was the last La Nina hat-trick.
Since 1890, La Nina triple dips have occurred a total of 8 times:
1895-98, 1909-12, 1928-32, 1938-41, 1949-52
This means similar conditions this winter to recent autumns and winters with lots of wind and a warm start to winter followed by much colder and snowier last halves of winter.
It also implies an early start to spring like this year and last year, late season cold snaps and snow from late March to April.
This is very bad news for the western United States, especially California, where the historic La Nina-induced drought will continue.
However, I’m still focusing on an El Nino evolving in 2023-24.