Snowfall totals 0.2 to 4″ since the event early Friday morning:
There’s the big snowstorm and the outbreak of severe weather. The risk of a tornado after midnight tonight will be particularly dangerous in part of the Deep South.
It’s just freezing cold here!
Lows of 7 to 12 tonight and wind chills of -12 to -4 are expected with gusts to 30-40 mph from the northwest.
Saturday will continue windy. Our likely high of 23 in Greater Lafayette will tie for the coldest temperature on record on March 12. The original record is 23 set in 1998 and the second is 24 set in 1896. Records date back to 1879 (Purdue 1879-1943 and Purdue Airport 1944-present).
Overall highs will only run 20-24 with single digit wind chills for the teen lows.
Sunday is much warmer, but will continue to be windy with rising temperatures tomorrow evening (after 15-22 lows).
Sunday’s highs are expected to reach 48-55, but southwesterly winds will blow at 30-40 mph all day.
Next week is going to be hot. It still looks like a few showers Monday evening-Tuesday morning.
The only change I made to the forecast was Friday.
It looks like the storm system is picking up speed and showers and a few thunderstorms will likely affect us Friday throughout the day rather than Friday night.
So I reduced the high temp from about 70-72 to about 66.
So the highs of 56-62 are likely Monday………55-61 Tuesday…..65-70 Wednesday…..68-73 Thursday and 59-66 Friday. Temperatures can actually start to drop in the afternoon to the lower 50 degrees in the northwest part of the viewing area as the wind shifts to the northwest.
As for next weekend, after morning lows of 36-46 on Saturday, highs of 57-65 are possible on Saturday and 64-70 on Sunday with sunshine.
Monday March 21st is expected to see highs of 70-75, while Tuesday March 22nd could potentially see PM storms and 70-75.
VERY preliminary shear trends show unidirectional shear for a linear storm mode or probable QLCS squall line.
After that, gelling the analogs with the long-term data with a focus on 1967, 1982, 1996, 2017, 2018, we could very well see a fast overnight 27-31 on the 26-27. However, I like the idea of more heat with 75-80 during the last days of March.
I’m basing this on the upper trough train developing over East Asia then heading and deepening westward. A bending of the southeast ridge and strengthening of the surface of the Bermuda High would force the storm’s track over the plains, bathing us in heat.
Look at this trend shown in the GFS, which I totally agree with when combined with the other long range model data from Europe and Japan and the CIPS analog and the NCEI analogs that I like to use (as well as my own data set here over the past about 13 years).
Note the projected temperature anomalies with the 75-80 here!
Note the upper trough swinging east from west and note the jet streaks moving over the area WITH the heat.
Note the very active track of the storm evolving in our sector with this trough rotating to the east.
However, note the much colder air blowing south and southeast over time.
This will intensify and the “false spring” will end at the very end of March with potentially a flurry of snow.
A flurry of snow with a hard freeze can occur even in early April as the cold and cold settle in for a while.
Note cold, cold air in early April. Again, some are possible with some buildup.
It just looks pretty raw in early April.
However, this is all being planned right now, as a sudden change will occur in mid-April with a heat wave.
Overall the latter part of April will tend to be warmer to much warmer than normal with lots of 80s.
However, watch for the risk of lots of severe weather with perhaps a severe turn before the start of May.
Very strong Pacific jet trails will roar across the plains with the dry line moving eastward.
We could have daily severe weather events/outbreaks from the Plains, translating into the Midwest in mid-April in this situation, and then especially for a period of several days in late, late April.
These are good matches with 1982 and 1996 and even some assignments from 1994 are seen.
TYPICALLY you get a colder wave in early May after this kind of freezing situation (like 1982, 1994, 1996).