0.2 to 2″ of snow fell last night through today’s total, with amounts of 1″ to +1″ tending to occur in our western and southwestern counties. The highest total of 2″ was reported south of Veedersburg.
Thank you to all the spotters and observers for your totals!
Tonight’s lows are tricky. With light to calm winds, the areas that completely clear with the longest period of time could absolutely build up in terms of temperature (given the snow cover).
A band of lake effect cloudiness, with some showers initially, will migrate over the region.
The areas where the lake effect is cloudy the longest, or even overnight, will be the warmest.
So, I went for global lows of -7 to 11. Keep in mind that there is a higher probability of the forecast dropping at any given location due to the delicate nature of the clouds at lake effect.
Some scattered freezing fog is possible. Watch for patches in black ice areas.
Saturday will feature increasing and thickening clouds with cold highs of 21-27.
Sunday looks mostly cloudy with warmer highs of 27-32. Any accumulating snowfall currently appears to be settling north and northeast of our region with the Alberta Clipper system.
While this is happening, a historic blizzard will hit areas from DelMarva to Maine and then to Newfoundland. It will likely surpass (in strength and snow accumulations, as well as overall impacts) the most recent major blizzards of 2010 and 2018 in the northeast.
Snowfall totals can be as high as 38″ in northeast Massachusetts with overall totals of +16″ from DelMarva northward.
Note the strong gusts of wind (the knots…..mph graph would be a bit higher numerically on this chart):
The other big weather story is the cold headed south, particularly Florida.
The freezing line should penetrate the Everglades well with a possible mid-30 to the tip of the peninsula. The top in the Miami area on Saturday will only turn around 55, while Orlando is looking at 48.
Havana, Cuba could drop to 47.
However, a sudden thaw will occur here next week and Havana will return to 87 midweek with lower 80s in Miami and 80s in Orlando.
We will see 40 to 51 on Tuesday with rainy and windy weather, followed by 40 to 50 on Tuesday evening with rain and wind.
On Wednesday temperatures will drop, rain will turn to mixed freezing and some snow as we drop from 36-45 in the morning to 24-31 in the late afternoon.
It looks like all snow Wednesday night-Thursday with a hard-hitting buildup. Winter storm conditions are possible.
A band of heavy snowfall is likely Wednesday night-Thursday, where exactly is unclear. There is strong evidence of a +12″ snow band somewhere nearby or possibly here.
Some data has it just above our viewing area, other data has it a little further west and northwest.
Not only that, but snow and ice could reach the Gulf Coasts of Texas and Louisiana and the Freeze Line as far as Brownsville, Texas and 5 Dallas.
Either way, however, there is very high confidence in ice and snow accumulation having an impact.
The three best analog matches via CIPS and my own analogs here are shown below (1979, 1981, 2011 systems).
Most tend to place the heaviest band of snowfall just to the northwest of our region, but we still get a hard-hitting winter event.
The coldest winter weather so far is expected to follow with lows at -22 by Friday or Saturday night next week.
The extent of the cold is extremely impressive late next week into next week with actual air temperatures approaching -45 in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin and -29 in northwestern ‘Illinois.
The global 7-day forecast:
The cold and snowy pattern will last until February 23 overall, then a significant change will occur with the arrival of much warmer weather.
This pattern of above normal temperatures appears to last throughout the first 10 days of March.
It also looks like a wet pattern with a chance of severe weather in the south.
Given the snowmelt and thaw, we will need to watch for early ice jams and potential minor flooding issues from runoff.
Overall, March looks warmer than normal, but there will still be plenty of cold air over the northern plains, the northern Rockies and the Pacific Northwest to Canada’s northwest. Watch for the potential for a late-season winter storm in late March after daffodils, crocuses begin to bloom and the first trees and buds of vegetation begin.
Precipitation is above normal for the whole of March.