Wednesday morning was the coldest in 3 years, not only at Purdue Airport, but for the viewing area as a whole.
The lows ranged from -15 to -2.
Wind chills dropped from -28 to -15.
Thursday will be warmer with mostly cloudy skies and strong southwesterly winds blowing at +35 mph at times across the region.
This, after we hit -6 to 9 tonight and then climbed back up to 6-16 late.
However, with this rise, there will be an increase in the wind from the south to the southwest, resulting in wind chills from -14 to 0.
Tomorrow’s highs will reach 27-35 with afternoon wind chills of 11-23.
A few scattered flurries are possible at times, mainly in the morning and later in the afternoon.
Localized dusting on the coatings is possible.
Windy and freezing weather will be here Friday with highs of 14 to 24 and wind chills below 0.
A few scattered flurries are possible at times, most from Lake Michigan in the afternoon.
Local dustings up to 1″ are possible. A pocket of 1-3″ may occur in far northern Newton and/or Jasper counties.
Total snowfall from Thursday to Friday evening:
It’s a great example of what I like to call snow hacking in our area.
The clipper and plains system phase from south to south of our region, while the Florida system begins to evolve along the eastern seaboard as the cold lands and warm waters of the Gulf Stream act as an anchor or a gradient for the formation of storms.
So the first phase then actually unfolds with the coastal storm developing. This means that our momentum and humidity will be moved away from our area and towards this coastal storm.
You can see the progress here:
This coastal storm has the potential to bombard off the coast of New England. A blizzard of historic proportions has the potential to occur in parts of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Maine. +2 feet of snow in some areas and gusts of +60 mph are possible.
Meanwhile, note how North Carolina and Virginia are seeing another major snowfall!
Some outlying data suggests that the entire phasing process is occurring farther south and that accumulated snowfall is occurring as far south as southern Georgia to extreme northern Florida and then all the way up. the east coast with the heaviest snowfall from Connecticut to Maine.
Either way, unusually cold weather will occur in Florida after the system with scattered frost up to the southern tip of the peninsula (at Homestead and Flamingo) and central Florida 20s and upper teens nearly 20 years in North Florida.
The high on Saturday in the Orlando area will be around 48 with northwesterly winds up to 35 mph!
The high at the southern tip of Florida on Saturday is expected to be only around 58. Key West may be as low as 61 with a low around 48.
Alberta Clipper is looking to bring accumulated snowfall just north and northeast of our region Saturday night-Sunday.
We will watch to see if he can follow a little further south.
The big thaw is still relevant for next week.
Rain is coming Wednesday and heavier rain and even thunder Wednesday evening-Thursday morning.
Severe weather could occur in the south. It currently appears that despite all the shear and momentum, buoyancy will be an issue to get the serious hazard as far north as the lower Ohio Valley.
These southerly dipping very cold air masses will dampen the very rapid return of buoyant and unstable air northward, despite strong and strong northward advection of warm air.
Nevertheless, we look like 50s and rain with a bit of thunder.
The cards are on the table for a winter storm to follow this rain and thaw. We have to watch the whole weekend next and the weekend after (February 5-6).
There is the potential for much colder weather with snow and ice.
After lots of cold, snow and ice for part of February, it still feels like a nice warm up to above normal temperatures and even a taste of spring from late February to early March.
The -PNA during this period can prevent this cold from becoming a record cold. All other indices are cold, as is my analog dataset. However, the -PNA may support the worst northwest of our region with -30s in Wisconsin and -20s in Illinois. We could briefly reach -20 in parts of the region.
Above normal precipitation is likely during this time and the MJO transitions into warm and humid phases for this time of year.