A powerful upper trough will pass with a clipper tonight. Patchy rain, snow, snow pellets and flurries are likely, changing to light flurries tonight.
Scattered snow showers could continue tomorrow before easing at the end of the day.
An isolated rumble of thunder is possible this evening given the cold air aloft.
A dusting to a blanket of snow is possible this evening-Thursday with up to 1″ in our northeastern regions.
After temperatures of 32-38 tonight, we will drop to 22-27 tonight with west-northwesterly winds gusting to 20-30 mph at times.
Highs of 25-30 are likely tomorrow with westerly to west-northwest winds of 15-25 mph.
Lows of 22-26 are likely tomorrow night before rising to 30-33 with the wind shifting south-southwest at 15-32 mph.
The snow will pass Friday morning, ending as rain/snow to rain.
Coating dusting is possible for the area with up to 1-1.5″ in our far northeast counties.
Once the rain showers pass in the afternoon with highs warming to 37-43, scattered rain/snow showers turn into flurries Friday evening-night.
Sprinkles on coatings are possible with up to 1″ of new buildup in our northeast counties and also in far northern Newton and Jasper counties (due to lake effect).
Winds will veer northwest then north at 20-35 mph with Friday evening lows of up to 15-20.
Saturday could have a few snow showers and lake effect flurries in the north, mostly early in the day.
Otherwise it looks partly to mostly cloudy with highs of 16-23 with northwest to west-northwest winds of 20-30 mph driving the wind chill below 0 single digits.
As we clear and the wind lessens on Saturday evening, lows of -6 to 4 are expected.
Sunday looks mostly sunny and cold with less wind and highs of 18 to 24.
We become mostly cloudy Sunday night with temperatures stabilizing at 10-16.
A few flurries and light showers are possible at some point Monday with 28-34, followed by 5-9 Monday evening with wind chills below 0.
Any buildup would tend to amount to dusting.
After 20s to 30s Tuesday with sun
There are big questions about the end of next week. It looks like there will be a phase with a big storm developing with lots of deep moisture.
However, the models began to deviate significantly from the storm’s exact path.
All sets tend to agree that there will be some amount of ice and/or snow for some or all of the viewing area at some point with this storm.
However, the median track with the center of the surface low extends from near St. Louis to Winamac.
It would put us in the rain for a while and warm us up a bit.
Most GEFS sets paint some degree of punchy snowfall and ice here, even with a spell of rain with the system.
Why is the deviation in the storm’s path suggesting rain with this system?
The main culprits are +EPO & -PNA.
The EPO+ trend is what brought the all-important Chinook to the Plains and our region yesterday with a big warm up and “snow eater” event. It also brings record heat to California.
This, while other factors are trying to carve a bottom in the eastern US leading to clipper passes here and a back and forth scenario between 30 and 40 and below 0 to 0 .
The -PNA tries to pump the ridge north from the southern plains and southeast. He receives help from the +EPO, but other factors push these attempts at good ridging towards the south. This again translates to our clipper track with a back and forth from melting to freezing cold and re-freezing.
So while the +EPO and -PNA work to try to warm up, the -WPO is great at pulling the cold south. This usually results in a pattern of frequent snowfall here and lots of cold air in our area. It usually brings heat to Southern California. So between the WPO and EPO, California experiences summer in winter with highs of 85-90 potentially for 6 days and 75-80 as far north as the northern Central Valley for days.
The MJO is expected to move from its current Phase 2 to 3 to 4 now until February 23.
Note that phases 2 to 3 are COLD phases with temperatures below normal for this time of year. However, notice how once we get to 4, it’s the dominant warm phase. It’s the heat that comes at the end of the month.
Phases 2-3 at this time of year appear to have fairly near normal precipitation for the region with drier than normal precipitation in the northwest and wetter than normal in the south and southeast of us .
Phase 4 is wetter, which equates to that warm, humid phase that develops at the end of the month.
So, as you can see, there is a battle between the hot and cold phases of the teleconnections.
We will tend to see fluctuations between freezing cold and sudden, mild flare-ups over the next few weeks, but my thoughts of more cold than hot will continue through February 23rd.
That said, it seems that the EPO and ANP tend to forecast the storm for the end of next week a little further northwest, which means not all snow and not all snow and ice. It looks like a rain, ice and snow scenario with a track near St. Louis to Winamac from the surface low at that point.
We will also monitor our teleconnections around February 22-23.
The warm, humid, springtime pattern will emerge after that and will last through early March.