The Alberta clipper train swings through the Great Lakes and the Midwest tonight-next Sunday:
Why don’t they dig further south with a lot more snow here and a lot more cold air this week?
We have the upper trough here with cold weather, but rough, brutal air is either drifting over central and northwest Alaska or over Hudson Bay north of the Great Britains. Lakes and New England. This is because the upper ridge in the western United States and Canada is too steep and tall.
To dislodge the brutal air, a ridge in western and western Canada is needed, but this ridge is so vast that it has divided the brutal cold into two parts and keeps a part to the north and northeast of us and one over part of Alaska.
We will still be cold with winter weather, but not extreme and brutal cold (like -22 or -16 actual air temperature). At first it looked like we would have temperatures like this a few times.
The MJO is nil right now with no influence, but it should quickly move into a Cold Phase 3 this week and beyond until mid-February. I think the broadening of the upper ridge is due to the EPO becoming more positive (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) leading to a bit warmer than it would otherwise be.
-WPO supports Cold Depression though.
+PNA is starting to go – well, supporting ridge widening and the worst, worst of the cold lock in both pieces rather than penetrating that far south.
So with these clipper systems…and the potential clipper phasing with the southern storm systems a week after this week:
1. TONIGHT-TOMORROW:
Periodic light freezing drizzle after 1 a.m. this evening until a few areas of periodic light snow tomorrow until 1 p.m.
Very thin glazing of ice and a light dusting to a layer of snow are possible.
2. TOMORROW NIGHT-TUESDAY AM:
A light snow wave is possible. Light dusting is possible.
3. WEDNESDAY:
Patchy snow and possible snow/rain/ice showers. Dust removal possible.
4. THURSDAY:
Scattered flurries. Dusting down to coating possible.
5. FRIDAY:
Morning snow spell with up to 1 in, then some freezing rain/ice pellets followed by a few rain/snow showers before ending in flurries with light thin icing and a possible light dusting of snow .
6. SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
Flurries possible with dusting to the coating and lake effect flurries Saturday evening through Sunday with up to 1-2″ in far northern counties.
7. AROUND NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY (AROUND FEBRUARY 15 OR 16):
Need to watch and see if the phases of the clipper and southern storm system. The track is in question. This will determine the type(s) and amounts of precipitation.
8. AROUND FRIDAY-SATURDAY (AROUND FEBRUARY 18 AND 19):
The same goes for February 19 and 20. If we see good phasing, we might see widespread icing and snow over the region. So we have to watch right after Valentine’s Day and about 4-5 days later.
9. AROUND FEBRUARY 22:
There may be a last winter hurrah for a long time around February 22 with ice and snow. After that, it’s the major warm-up and thaw.
Much warmer, spring-like weather is expected to arrive in the last days of February and continue through early March.
Heavy rains will be an issue to watch with the potential for flash and overall flooding.
Note the pattern:
It is exceptionally hot in our region. MJO is looking to move into warm phases for late February-early March with -PNA, +NAO, +AO, +WPO. The QBO phase supports northern plains blizzards and heat in the Midwest / Ohio Valley and especially in the Southeast with a subtropical ridge there (which will help hang up the fronts here) .
With the solid MJO phase of 4 to 5, it supports heat and humidity from late February to March.
HOWEVER, phase 5 at the end of March supports the cold here, which corresponds well with the thought of a blow of ice or snow at the end of the season (see in the text below).
Phases 4 and 5 are wet here, with 5 being the wetter of the two phases.
The storm trail will be very active with lots of severe weather in the southern lower valleys of Ohio and maybe a bit here.
Very heavy snowfall and blizzards will occur in the Rocky Mountains and northern plains.
Although we are dominated by spring-like weather and lots of precipitation, in this type of pattern you often get a brief, powerful, random ice storm or ice event. That would not surprise me.
We may have a situation where it’s 64 with rain and flood warnings and then a brief intrusion of cold air drops us to 30-32 over part of the area and we see 10 hours of freezing rain which lead to heavy accumulations of ice. These are the icing events that blanket the budding flowers of the silver maple in the ice in typical spring wacky weather.
Then it melts with us in the 1940s and 1950s as the front retreats north.
Be aware of this risk in the middle of a hot spring period until early March.
If you live near rivers and streams, watch for the period from late February to March 13, because we might even see one of those “Mayan Express” events here where it rains along a front for hours, hours and hours.
The model corresponds to the risk of this well in the analog analysis.
Even March 13-20 looks wet here with the same pattern. The river level can be chronically high for a month.
It continues to be warmer overall until the March 13-20 period as well.
Watch for flood risk and potential severe weather hazard to sneak in here.
After March 20, I still find a very good correlation to bring an end-of-season winter hit with an ice storm or snowfall. This would most likely happen between March 22 and March 31.
This would happen when American elms, red and silver maples are in full bloom, crocuses and daffodils begin to bloom, and grass greens. We can even see Forsynthias starting to bloom in part of the area along with Western Chorus Frogs and Spring Peepers chorusing before the storm.
Vegetation may be up to 2 weeks ahead of normal.
After that it can be cold, wet and muggy for the start of April (with frost and even a bout of snow showers) and temperatures can end up averaging below normal for the start of April, but then rise above normal all in late April.
Severe weather risk is expected to intensify in late April as a pattern similar to late February develops in early to mid-March.
This means heavy rain, heat and sometimes severe weather as the axis of higher instability and heat moves north.
We haven’t had an EF4 tornado since 1994 here and the average occurrence is every 20 years. We are behind and in this scheme, it supports this type of epidemic.
Our last EF3 was in May 2019 on Memorial Day weekend (Miami County). That day he saw grapefruit hail and wind gusts to +80 mph in northwest Tippecanoe County.
So…………..overall highs/lows:
Monday morning: 15-23
Monday/Tuesday AM. 17-24F/0-10
Tuesday: 30-35/25-29
Wednesday: 34-38/25-29
Thursday: 27-31F/22-25
Friday: 34-39/5-10
Next Saturday: 14-19/-2 – 3
Next Sunday: 11-16/-5 – 0
Monday February 14: 6-25/9-3
Tuesday, February 15: 25-30/20-25
Wednesday, February 16: 21-25/0-5