Early warning for another round of scattered thunderstorms on Monday

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) – Happy Monday! Today is the first day of school in parts of central Alabama. We start the day with temperatures mostly in the lower 70s this morning. Temperatures are a few degrees cooler than yesterday morning. Some of the cool spots are in northwest Alabama, where temperatures are in the upper 60s. First Alert AccuTrack Satellite and Radar shows us mostly cloudy this morning with some possible stray showers. I think most morning rides will end up being dry, but a stray shower or nugget/drizzle spot can’t be ruled out. We also cannot rule out the possibility of patchy fog in a few places. It might not be a bad idea to grab the umbrella before you walk out the door this morning. We are looking at partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies today. Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s with southerly winds at 5-10 mph. We’re looking at a 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon and evening. Today’s main threat will be similar to yesterday’s. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Flash floods are low, but they are not zero. We will probably see spots remaining dry today. If you have plans for the evening, we will keep a 30-40% chance of thunderstorms around 7:00 or 8:00 p.m. with temperatures cooling into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Scattered storms continue this week: we are following the same weather pattern as tomorrow and Wednesday. Morning temperatures are expected to cool in the low to mid 70s with highs in the upper 80s. Each day will end up being partly sunny to mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. I’ve reduced the chance of rain tomorrow as our latest model runs have rolled back on our storm coverage for the region. Thunderstorms for the next two days will be scattered/random and capable of producing heavy rain and lightning. Remember, if thunder rolls, go inside. The next few days will not be catastrophic. Some places could see a few inches of rain while others will remain dry. It’s normal to see that in August.

Next big thing: A weak cold front is expected to approach from the southeast on Thursday. This will likely increase our chances of seeing scattered storms. I upped our chance of rain to 60-70% on Thursday afternoon with high temps in the upper 80s. There is a chance we could see early morning showers Thursday morning and maybe early Friday morning as well. The placement of the cold front is still debatable, but the models are backtracking on our chance of rain at the end of the week. Friday will end up being partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and widely scattered thunderstorms. The best chance of rain on Friday will likely occur along and south of I-20. Highs are expected to warm to near 90°F Friday afternoon.

Rather dry this weekend: the coming weekend promises to be rather dry. We may see a hint of dry air moving Friday evening into Saturday morning. Morning temperatures could end up in the upper 60s on Saturday. Both days will end generally dry with highs in the lower 90s. Both days will finish partly cloudy with only a 20% chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms. The weather should be good for those who are going to do their back-to-school shopping. Models suggest that our storm risks may increase by the middle of next week.

Tropical Update: The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa. They predict a 40% (medium chance) of this tropical wave becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next five days. The models aren’t too aggressive in developing this system, and it doesn’t look like it will impact our weather over the next 7-10 days. It will be something to watch as it moves over the central Atlantic Ocean. The rest of the tropics remain calm. Hurricane season normally peaks in late August and September. The season officially ends on November 30.


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